Here we go...

Polls are closing in the US shortly and the whole presidential-election buzz is reaching its peak. Meanwhile, one wonders whether much thought has been given to the next steps for the losers.

First up, note that whatever the outcome tonight, the next four years should be pretty difficult, so the president, whoever he (or, a heartbeat away, she) might be, will be vulnerable in 2012 if the economy hasn't picked up and people are still feeling the pinch.

If McCain wins, all very well for him, and I think we would broadly expect to see dismay and disappointment in America, and probably some cynicism worldwide. I suspect Obama would not reappear in 2012, since a great deal of his appeal has stemmed from his newness (it's all been about change, after all). But Hillary Clinton, Al Gore and no doubt a dozen others could jockey to dominate a damaged Democratic party in time to challenge a 76-year-old president in 2012.

If Obama wins, as everybody seems to be expecting, the effect on the Republican party seems likely to be much more extreme. Even during this campaign, there's been a lot of talk of the "Republican base", and McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate to satisfy that base gives a clear indication of where the power in the party lies. So a Republican failure, coupled with the whole "cataclysm" discourse of modern electioneering, suggests that the Republicans would swiftly elbow McCain - the self-professed 'maverick' - aside, and return to their more conservative roots, quite possibly led by Sarah Palin in 2012. Even if it's not the belipsticked pitbull, recent reports suggest that she and her wing of the party will be setting the agenda. So it could be back to babies-guns-n-Jesus for a moral crusade in 2012.

So is an Obama victory, ironically, the outcome most likely to drive a large chunk of the American political landscape back to the right, and therefore to polarise the country?