On the Conservatives

Since the final exit of John Major from the Conservative front bench to go and watch more cricket in 1997, the Tories have not found a happy home in the paradise of moderates. Under successive leaders - Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard - the party moved to the right, both on policy and rhetoric. Theresa May's famous admonition that they were the "nasty party" was more than a warning to her troops: it was one of the most precise observations on public opinion since the Tories were deemed to be "in office, but not in power".

David Cameron has managed to do a great deal as Conservative leader. Whether this has been a reform of the "nasty party" soul, or just an effective camouflage of it, it's still been quite an achievement. So the corking 44% result, with the promise of Mayor Boris to follow, is undoubtedly good from a moderate point of view: whether the substance of the party is still "nasty", its public image - on which alone voters can judge it- is moving in a more centrist direction, and this has been rewarded. Whether the rank-and-file really are out of their blue-rinse Thatcherite fake-Tory phase or not, the voters' endorsement of the party as it is now can only be a moderating influence on its future direction.

But the Conservatives still face some problems. Moderation tends to be a winner, as Tony Blair deftly proved at every election he fought. It even outweighed revulsion over the invasion of Iraq. But the Conservatives are not up against a non-moderate alternative. Labour is looking tired, fractious and silly, but doesn't look as alienating as the Conservatives themselves were in the 1990s. I suspect that John Major was held in sneaking regard by those voters who turfed his party out eleven years ago; it was the party on the backbenches which had alienated the voters by looking divided, vindictive and crackpot. Now, it's Gordon Brown and his front bench who are losing public sympathy, not the backbenches. (So would a change of leadership help? Probably not, because that would open up nasty divisions).

Unpopular Brown may be, but his predecessor's success was aided by Major's own destruction at the hands of the Conservatives. Unless Labour goes completely stark staring bonkers, Brown is safe, so Cameron is going to have to pedal still harder to win a general election: despite his successful shift to the centre, the middle ground is still not vacant.